Will the S&P 500 AGAIN decrease by over 5% in one day in 2025?
110
Ṁ19k
Dec 31
59%
chance

After April 4, 2025, this will happen again.

Resolution Criteria: The market will be based on closing prices only, comparing the close to close price movement from one day to the next.

  • Intraday Prices: Any price movements within the trading day will not be considered.

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*desperately stuffing pennies into pockets in front of oncoming steamroller

bought Ṁ50 YES

Even if we only get a standard 50% retrace tomorrow from today's +8% gain, then we should lose 4%. That's probably the base case.

I put more into YES because there could easily be news from Trump that spikes things down by an additional 1%. The most likely day for this -5% decline this year is tomorrow.

Remember, the price of everything is still going up by 10%, and trade with China is effectively frozen with CEOs simply refusing to send trucks to the docks at the moment.

sold Ṁ65 YES

@SteveSokolowski Sold for a nice profit. We're at -5.16% but the charts show this is oversold. I think the market closes at -4.50% or -4%.

filled a Ṁ50 NO at 31% order

Going to try and earn back all the mana I lost trading against myself like a moron in the last one

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