The UBS Global Health Report 2024 states that the UK currently has 3,061,553 USD millionaires. This can be found on page 30 of the report. They predict this figure to drop by 17%, or 519,089 millionaires by 2028.
On a simple per year division basis, that would be a 129,772 drop yearly over 4 years or 103,817 yearly over 5 years (I'm uncertain the exact timings of what the figures are intended to represent).
Keir Starmer said on the day of creating this market that the October budget "Will be painful". This could accelerate the trend. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c0rw9edy00zt
Resolution Criteria
This market will be resolved based on the difference between this figure in this years report, and the 2025 UBS Global Wealth Report. If there are differences in the reports, the best way to calculate the figure will be discussed as much as possible in the comments of the market.
If the figure shows a positive trend, i.e. there was no drop in the year, the market will resolve to zero. Equally, if the figure is above the range, it will resolve to the highest value in the range (450,000).
1,000
3.00@TheAllMemeingEye i think the report is from data as of the start of the year, but isn't released until summer. it is a single annual release, so no monthly data.
@TheAllMemeingEye it may be best that I adjust the end date to the end of 2024 and then resolve in September. Any opinions on this?
@LukeShadwell You mean close date? I don't see a problem leaving it open into 2025 if people want to keep predicting after Jan 1 and before the report is released (also, it's mostly not people "leaving" that impacts the number; rather, it's largely determined by currency exchange rates vs the dollar and stock market performance, applied over the preexisting wealth distribution). Right now, FTSE is up 7% YTD and the Sterling is roughly flat vs dollar, so I'd expect the number of millionaires to increase modestly in the report.
the report is from data as of the start of the year, but isn't released until summer
it's mostly not people "leaving" that impacts the number; rather, it's largely determined by currency exchange rates vs the dollar and stock market performance, applied over the preexisting wealth distribution
Maybe "How many millionaires the UK lose between Jan 2024 and Jan 2025 according to the UBS Global Wealth Report?" would be the most accurate title, with the close date remaining in September?