Will there be a half-trillionaire by the end of 2025?
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47
Ṁ18k
Dec 31
37%
chance

Resolves according to the Forbes Real Time Billionaires list. If at any point before the end of 2025, any person has a displayed net worth greater than or equal to $500 billion USD, this market resolves YES.

Otherwise, it resolves NO.

If Forbes stops updating their list, I will pick a new canonical source that seems as reliable as possible.

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SpaceX raising at $400B: Musk's 42% stake would be worth ~$168 billion (up from ~$147 billion at $350B), adding ~$21 billion to his net worth. xAI rumored raising at $170-200B. Musk's 59% stake would be worth ~$118 billion (up from ~$55 billion at $92.7B), adding ~$63-71 billion. Today Forbes has Musk at $402 billion. Tesla adding $49 in share price would add $20 billion to his net worth.

opened a Ṁ500 NO at 40% order

Uh oh

bought Ṁ50 YES

Tesla at $480 if there is no increase in SpaceX or XAI. Every $2 billion or so valuation increase in Spacex or XAI should give another billion to Elon net worth. Reduce the tesla share price needed by $2.

bought Ṁ50 NO from 42% to 40%
bought Ṁ50 YES

$415 billion today. Tesla getting back to all time highs in January will do it because of increases in XAI valuation. SpaceX valuation increase coming mid-year as well.

bought Ṁ150 NO

@brianwang $431 billion. $23.5 share price move for $12.8 billion. $1.836 share price increase is $1 billion. $488 tesla share price will do it. Less if there is increase in SpaceX, Boring company, or XAI valuation.

Elon Musk at $380.9 Billion net worth per Forbes

https://www.forbes.com/profile/elon-musk/?listuri=rtb

Up $28B today

bought Ṁ50 NO from 45% to 43%

In this economy?!

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