Elon Musk has taken on a significant role in the Trump Administration as co-lead of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), alongside Vivek Ramaswamy (who has since departed). This unofficial advisory role has been described as a "non-career Special Government Employee" position. Musk has been actively involved in policy discussions and has gained considerable influence within the administration despite not holding an official cabinet position.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the year when Elon Musk no longer plays a significant role in the Trump Administration. A "significant role" will be defined based on reports from credible press and statements from the principals, but indicators will include:

• No longer serving as co-lead of DOGE or in any similar advisory capacity

• No longer having regular, direct influence on administration policy

• No longer being publicly acknowledged by Trump or the administration as a key advisor

At least one month upon departure will be needed, though. So, if Musk resigns as advisor and is reinstated a week later, that does not count. If Musk gradually reduces his involvement rather than making a clean break, the market will resolve to the year when it becomes clear he no longer has significant influence.

If Trump's administration ends before Musk's role does (Trump dies or leaves office for any reason), this market resolves N/A.

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