Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next elected Pope is widely recognized as a liberal within the context of the Catholic Church's theological and social teachings. Conversely, it will resolve to "No" if the new Pope is generally considered conservative or moderate. The determination will be based on reputable sources such as official Vatican communications, statements from the Pope, and analyses from established Catholic scholars and media outlets.

Background:

Following the death of Pope Francis on April 21, 2025, the Catholic Church is preparing for a conclave to elect his successor. Pope Francis was known for his progressive stances on issues like inclusivity, climate change, and social justice, which have influenced the Church's direction during his papacy. (ft.com)

Considerations:

The term "liberal" within the Catholic Church encompasses a range of positions, including openness to doctrinal development, emphasis on social justice, and progressive approaches to moral and ethical issues. The interpretation of a Pope's liberalism may vary among different groups within the Church.

Potential Candidates:

Several cardinals are considered potential successors, each with varying theological orientations:

• Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines): Often referred to as the "Asian Francis," Tagle is known for his progressive views and emphasis on inclusivity. He has criticized the Church's past use of "harsh words" towards LGBTQ individuals and divorced Catholics, advocating for a more compassionate approach. (en.wikipedia.org)

• Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy): As the Archbishop of Bologna and president of the Italian Bishops' Conference, Zuppi is closely associated with the progressive Sant’Egidio Community. He has been involved in peace negotiations and has shown openness towards LGBTQ outreach, aligning with Pope Francis' pastoral approach. (en.wikipedia.org)

• Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy): Serving as the Vatican's Secretary of State since 2014, Parolin is considered a moderate. He has extensive diplomatic experience and is seen as a bridge between conservative and progressive factions within the Church. (fox10tv.com)

• Cardinal Peter Erdo (Hungary): Known for his conservative stance, Erdo has opposed practices such as allowing divorced or remarried Catholics to receive Holy Communion, emphasizing traditional Church teachings. (independent.co.uk)

• Cardinal Robert Sarah (Guinea): A vocal advocate for traditional Catholic teachings, Sarah has taken conservative positions on issues like sexual morality and liturgical practices. (en.wikipedia.org)

The outcome of the conclave will significantly influence the Church's future direction, either continuing Pope Francis' progressive legacy or shifting towards a more conservative path.