Add your own bets.
I will resolve according to publicly available information and my best judgment.
Will be resolved at end of 2025 at the latest.
Update 2025-06-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "Iran successfully bomb an Israeli power plant or offshore platform", the creator has specified:
An oil refinery is not considered a power plant.
The market refers to gas offshore platforms.
Update 2025-06-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'Iran successfully bomb an Israeli power plant or offshore platform', a power plant must be for civilian use.
Update 2025-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they would resolve this market to YES if the Israeli government dissolves for any reason before the market's end date.
Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding a potential bombing of the Fordow facility, the creator has specified their evidence standard for resolution:
A statement from a single political figure (e.g., Donald Trump) is not sufficient on its own.
The creator requires confirmation that the facility was destroyed before resolving.
Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For an answer related to a 'successful bombing' of the Fordow facility, a strike will not be considered successful if the centrifuges are not destroyed.
Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For answers proposed by users, the creator has stated they will resolve the answer based on the proposing user's terms and decision.
Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer for the Fordow facility bombing:
The creator will wait for a proper damage assessment before resolving this answer.
This assessment period could take weeks or months.
The current IAEA statement is considered insufficient for resolution.
Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For an answer related to an 'attempt to broker a cease-fire/peace deal', the creator has specified that:
A proposal that is 'merely declarative' is insufficient for a YES resolution.
There must be an 'honest attempt' to 'actually push negotiations'.
Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal', the creator has specified the following conditions for a YES resolution:
There must be reports of actual ceasefire negotiations.
The negotiations must include both sides of the conflict.
China must be mediating the negotiations.
Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'A fifth generation fighter jet is destroyed', the creator has specified their evidence standard:
A claim from Iran, especially if supported by weak evidence like an AI-generated photo, is considered insufficient.
The creator will look for confirmation from the Israeli Air Force (IAF).
Update 2025-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'Fordow facility successfully bombed', the creator has decided to resolve it to N/A due to what they judged to be unclear resolution criteria.
1,000
3.00Hopefully it is okay to share here, but I have another prop bet market for world conflicts outside of just the Iran-Israel war for those interested:
https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027?r=QmxhY2tDcnVzYWRl
I don’t think most traders here get how likely this has become post-war.
Reasoning: gov’t is getting close to its end, ruling coalition likely to use the war for favorable election framing.
@Lemming This shall not yet be resolved. Nobody knows so far if a bombing was successful or if other bombings follow.
@DaniellqdC6 I’ve decided to resolve as NA due to criticism of unclear resolution criteria. We can create a new answer with more spine criteria.
@Lemming This should resolve YES.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250624-iran-israel-war-latest-developments
Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 610 civilians, Iran's health ministry said on Tuesday.
@zsig HRANA doesn't agree at this point
I would say HRANA would be biased toward more liberal estimates, but perhaps a bit less biased than Iran's Health Ministry.
If you take the average of both you do end up with 513 however
@BlackCrusade Does Iran have a track-record of lying about civilian casualties? Else I think it's pretty clear-cut.
@zsig I am not aware of them lying in the past. I only present the alternative source to present doubt ;)
@BlackCrusade I’ve decided to resolve as NA due to criticism of unclear resolution criteria. We can create a new answer with more spine criteria.
@Lemming resolves YES
Prop bet: “Donald Trump declares victory.”
Recommended resolution: YES — resolve now
Why it satisfies the condition
What counts as “declare” — an on-the-record public statement by Trump using the word “victory.”
On 25 June 2025, at the NATO summit in The Hague, Trump said the cease-fire ending the Iran-Israel war was “a victory for everybody.” That phrase is an explicit declaration of victory, satisfying the literal wording of the prop bet.
Rock-solid source for the market creator
Reuters, “Trump declares Iran ‘victory for everybody’ despite doubts over damage,” 25 Jun 2025.
@someone8Nngy resolve as what based on what criteria? It has to resolve yes, no, or N/A, so how would it resolve and why?
@someone8Nngy 3% isn't Yes, No, or N/A
I agree it should resolve, but it should be N/A as it's unresolvable as worded.
@someone8Nngy I apologize, I was unaware these markets could resolve to a number! Is that new? As far as I was aware the multiple choice questions could only resolve to yes, no, or n/a.
