World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027
28
Ṁ3287
2027
90%
Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
84%
Donald Trump remains President of USA
75%
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel
69%
Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia
69%
Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days
63%
Sudanese Civil War ends
61%
An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours
61%
Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days or peace deal is signed)
59%
A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country
59%
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations
58%
Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat
57%
Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces
52%
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns
52%
Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
52%
Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test
50%
China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace
50%
An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period
50%
At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series
50%
A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days
50%
A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

I will not bet on this market.

Please feel free to add your own prop bets to the market. Questions may be broad (Nuclear Weapon used in aggression) or specific (Trump's June 22, 2025 Cease-fire declaration is not violated for at least 7 days), but should have clear resolution criteria.

This is a market for prop bets related to any and all military/political conflicts worldwide from 2025 through the end of 2027.

I will do my best to quickly resolve questions correctly in a timely fashion. I tend to pay attention to international news.

All questions, unless specifying a date, must be assumed to have "by midnight UTC ±0 on 31 Dec 2027" as part of their resolution criteria.

I will default to the question creator's resolution criteria when necessary.

To assist in correct and timely resolutions, I encourage traders to post news articles/sources supporting a resolution.

I will edit/remove AI updates that are incorrect and put them under a header for the specific question they pertain to. If an AI update is placed under a question header, it is safe to assume it correctly reflects question resolution

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

  • Update 2025-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This answer will resolve to YES only if Jordan becomes a signatory of the specific treaty known as the 'Abraham Accords'. Jordan is not currently a signatory.

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I find it fascinating that nukes are more likely than these other questions.

@BlackCrusade I don’t understand this one. Jordan has already recognize and has a peace treaty with Israel. Could you explain?

@Lemming Jordan is not currently a signatory on the specific "Abraham Accords" treaty. This would resolve YES if they become an actual signatory of this specific treaty.

bought Ṁ50 NO

@BlackCrusade my point is that Jordan could not become a signatory without breaking ties with Israel in the first place.

The whole point of the agreement is normalization of relations. Do you find this a plausible scenario? This is akin to US signing a peace treaty with Mexico.

@Lemming I don't find it to be a high or even medium probability scenario, though I cannot predict the future. I predict that this should trade below 10%. I don't just add questions that I think may resolve yes, I like the idea of the "wisdom of the crowds" as a tool to take the temperature of international situations.

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-859047

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