Who will be first to AGI | Manifold

Who will be first to AGI

Plus

36

Ṁ1583

2050

30%

OpenAI

10%

Microsoft

6%

Meta

4%

Huggingface/homegrown

30%

Google

11%

US government

4%

China government

1.6%

Russia government

1.8%

Apple

1.8%

AGI is impossible

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Missing DeepSeek

Huffing the copium

Does it resolve to AGI is impossible if AGI is possible but not achieved by 2050?

@ProjectVictory Yes

There are a few answers >10% that are missing

What happens if multiple work together?

Would "other" be worthy of being an option?

@Quroe the question is which of these companies will be first out of these companies listed

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-4% 1d50% chance

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