Will China's next (fourth) aircraft carrier be nuclear-powered?
Will China's next (fourth) aircraft carrier be nuclear-powered?
Basic
7
Ṁ1742030
79%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES or NO when a Chinese government body disseminates information that makes this question clear. We should not assume that this information will come any particular time, and it might be the case that it becomes an open secret, but resolution should still wait for official confirmation.
Would resolve NA if it became clear there will be no next aircraft carrier
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The only country with a nuclear powered carrier other than the US is France and they only have one.
You can’t hide nuclear engines for satellites. The Chinese don’t have any nuclear powered naval ships as of today I don’t think. Even their submarines are diesel I believe.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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