Will China test a nuclear weapon before the end of 2025?
Plus
35
Ṁ14982026
20%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The Chinese have said they will growth their strategic and tactical weapons stockpiles rapidly over the coming decade. This market resolves YES for the first test during the timeframe between the open and close dates conducted by the Chinese government.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Growth of stockpiles doesn’t require testing of actual bombs. Nuclear physics is an old science. Nowadays the only thing worth testing is delivery.
Only reason for a test would be as intimidation.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2025?
23% chance
Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025?
16% chance
Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025?
16% chance
Will Russia use a nuclear weapon before 2025-01-20?
1% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
11% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
14% chance
Will the People’s Republic of China switch to a ‘launch on warning’ nuclear posture by 2028?
39% chance
Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2025? (Tests included)
12% chance
Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2025?
20% chance
Will a nuclear detonation happen in space by the end of 2025?
7% chance