Which conspiracies will be confirmed in the NYT before 2040?
Which conspiracies will be confirmed in the NYT before 2040?
Basic
32
Ṁ43672040
15%
US government found intelligent extraterrestrials
14%
secret cabal of pedophiles in high places
13%
Trump is a Russian agent
12%
The Boeing whistleblower didn't kill himself
10%
Emperor Nero didn't kill himself
9%
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
8%
Bill or Hillary Clinton had someone whacked
8%
massive mail ballot fraud in 2020
8%
JFK wasn't killed by LHO acting alone and on his own initiative.
6%
Chemtrails
5%
Capote ghostwrote To Kill a Mockingbird
5%
John McAfee didn't kill himself
5%
Harold Holt didn't drown or was whacked
5%
Jimmy Hoffa was whacked
3%
The moon landing was faked
2%
The Holocaust was largely exaggerated
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nero
Nero prepared himself for suicide, [...] Losing his nerve, he begged one of his companions to set an example by killing himself first. At last, the sound of approaching horsemen drove Nero to face the end. However, he still could not bring himself to take his own life, but instead forced his private secretary, Epaphroditus, to perform the task.[98]
[...]According to Sulpicius Severus, it is unclear whether Nero took his own life.[100]
I'm also pretty sure I saw a Bettany Hughes documentary that depicted it as the companion he asked to commit suicide as an example instead killed him in anger
drone strikes or any other US military actions don't count for "Bill or Hillary Clinton had someone whacked"
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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