https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winograd_schema_challenge
Resolves positivly if a computer program exists that can solve Winograd schemas as well as an educated, fluent-in-English human can.
Press releases making such a claim do not count; the system must be subjected to adversarial testing and succeed.
(Failures on sentences that a human would also consider ambiguous will not prevent this market from resolving positivly.)
/IsaacKing/will-ai-pass-the-winograd-schema-ch
/IsaacKing/will-ai-pass-the-winograd-schema-ch-1d7f8b4ad30e
1,000
3.00I think a human could do better than 97%? If AI seems to be right on the boundary, I'll use myself as a benchmark. If it does at least as well as me, the market resolves YES. (I get to look up any words I don't know the definitions of, but I don't get to look up anything else.)
Yes.
I made a market on this a while ago:
https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/will-ai-image-generating-models-sco
@SneakySly That market appears to be about the Winoground test for image models. This market is about the Winograd test for language models. They're entirely different things, they just have a similar name. (I assume Winoground was a pun based on Winograd.)
What is this?
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00