Resolution criteria
This market will resolve based on the total number of Israeli fatalities resulting from Iranian counterattacks during June 2025. The resolution will be determined by official reports from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and reputable news agencies. The outcome will correspond to the answer option that includes the reported number of fatalities.
Background
On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a series of airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities and military infrastructure. In response, Iran initiated counterattacks, including the launch of over 100 Shahed drones towards Israel. Some of these drones were intercepted by the Royal Jordanian Air Force over Jordanian airspace, while others were intercepted by the Israeli Air Force over Saudi Arabia and Syria. (en.wikipedia.org)
Considerations
Given the ongoing nature of the conflict and the potential for further escalations, the number of Israeli fatalities may change as new incidents occur throughout June 2025. Traders should monitor official statements from the IDF and updates from reputable news sources to stay informed about the evolving situation.
Update 2025-06-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user question regarding an ambiguity in the answer options, the creator has edited the options to resolve the issue.
Update 2025-06-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user question, the creator clarified what constitutes an Iranian counterattack:
Attacks with a dubious link to Iran will likely not be counted.
Attacks by a confirmed Iranian asset, including domestic terror attacks, will likely be counted.
Update 2025-06-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user question, the creator clarified that the count of Israeli fatalities will include non-Israeli foreign nationals who die in Israel from the specified attacks.
1,000
3.00@JaundicedBaboon downside case for 11-50 is afaik there's still missing ppl/injuries that could convert to casualties as they figure it out.
Seems likely to be 11-50 though
@nathanwei Yeah no injuries from this latest barrage. Iran does not have the ability to shoot many more ballistic missiles.
@VikramKulkarni it's definitely sad that people are dying, but I think betting about it doesn't make that any worse and might even be a tiny bit useful - see discussion on a similar market here: https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/death-toll-in-israelhamas-war-israe#pUR8WyiZuHlkst3BYarq
@VikramKulkarni @BenjaminCosman As someone who is currently in Israel (studying there). I really appreciate all the prediction markets about this war. The first place I looked after hearing the first sirens Thursday night was prediction markets. They are honest, quick, free to read and as untainted by bias as any human endeavor can be.
I personally can't stomach betting on this question, but I do want to know what the market thinks, so I'm happy other ppl are
@VikramKulkarni I think that, in general, forecasting war is a useful and valuable public service.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/#comment-82655
There are certainly versions that are more useful or not, questions that are more like warnings or more like cheering things on, but in general I think "will it be bad" can be valuable.