When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad? | Manifold

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

Premium

66

Ṁ110k

2046

2,027

expected

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The description and resolution criteria correspond to those of the equivalent question on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Technical AI Timelines

#IMO Grand Challenge

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

bought Ṁ31 YES

I'd appreciate it if you add "open source" to the title. I made some large bets not realizing that part of the metaculus question.

@mods this is probably within your powers

bruh

How does this resolve if it happens later than 2045?

@Nat 2045.

Related questions

Will an AI get gold on this Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

+6% 1d76% chance

Will an AI score 1st place on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?

-6% 1d4% chance

When will an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize?

Will an AI get bronze or silver on any International Math Olympiad by end of 2025?

Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2029?

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

+4% 1d25% chance

Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI producing a formalized gold medal (see description)

Will an AI get at least silver on International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) by end of 2025?

Will AI win a gold on IMO before it wins a gold on IOI?

Related questions

Will an AI get gold on this Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2029?

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Will an AI score 1st place on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?

Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI producing a formalized gold medal (see description)

When will an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize?

Will an AI get at least silver on International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) by end of 2025?

Will an AI get bronze or silver on any International Math Olympiad by end of 2025?

Will AI win a gold on IMO before it wins a gold on IOI?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules