Mannifold suffers from a problem that long term bets are not profitable due to the time of payout. To try to combat that, they recently implemented a loan feature that allows 1.5% loaned per day, on all positions on collateral.
I want to test if that loan feature is working. If it's working, Mannifold should have a very low discount rate, as this is free money.
Will resolve per data taken from the below market, using an average of data taken from 6/30/25, 12/31/25, 6/30/26, which I will annualize (per year interest rate). Adjustments will be made accordingly for figures maxing out at 99%.
Please see Part 1:
https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/what-is-the-discount-rate-on-manifo-hC5yItnNgS
1,000
3.00How does your analysis change if a significant fraction of people sell their profitable long-term positions well-prior to market close?
@WilliamGunn Then that indicates the discount rate is higher if people are selling vs waiting for the guaranteed payout later.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00