Will the per-capita mana supply on Manifold decrease in any month before the end of 2025?
Will the per-capita mana supply on Manifold decrease in any month before the end of 2025?
Basic
5
Ṁ491
2026
95%
chance

The per-capita mana supply is equal to the total amount of mana in the balances of all accounts on Manifold, plus loans that have not yet been paid out (i.e. the previous two quantities combined are equal to the amount of mana if everyone sold all their shares in every market), plus all market liquidity, plus any other conceptual repositories in which mana can exist such as bounties. This ignores any mana held by Manifold, such as the official @Manifold account, but includes mana held by the personal accounts of Manifold employees. Any accounts with a negative balance are treated as zero.

This refers specifically to the period from the first of a month to the first of the next month (or the last of the month, if that's easier to calculate); the per-capita mana supply must be lower on that date in the second month than in the first. (In other words, I'm not looking for any 1-month-long period in which this occurs, it has to specifically line up with a calendar month.)

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bought Ṁ100 YES1y

This almost certainly resolves YES, though idk what the mana supply was a month ago
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/959728429295616061/1225974909638017064

1y

Is there a way to check the per capita mana supply online? Do you have a link?

1y

@Irigi I don't, but it can be determined by running a script on the API. Someone had already done that, but I forgot who.

1y

@IsaacKing it was @PatMyron I believe

1y

@chrisjbillington unfortunately the API does not easily provide the entire mana supply. It only easily provides the uninvested balances

1y

@PatMyron Ah, I thought you were doing something more complicated to calculate the total including the mana invested in markets, I must be misremembering.

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