GPT-5 exists
GPT-5 exists
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Ṁ1255Jan 1
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Any objections to resolving this N/A and returning everybody's mana? There is significant confusion over what this market is about AND about the timeline
Does this mean whether there is a "working" version of GPT5 in development, or whether GPT5 is ready for public release? (It is not unlikely that it is ready and simply being held back for fears it might affect the US presidential election if released before the election via disinformation or just being too persuasive.)
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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
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Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
GPT-5 released to the public by May 30, 2025?
19% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before Aug 2025?
54% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before May 2025?
1% chance
GPT-5 releases when?
GPT 5 Exceeds Expectations
40% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before Jun 2025?
10% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before Jul 2025?
30% chance
GPT-5 will be launched (available to the public) in 2025
89% chance
What will be true about GPT-5?
When will GPT 5 be released