Resolves YES only if both of the following are true:

1. The United States experiences an internal armed conflict on U.S. territory that reaches “war” intensity (≥1,000 battle-related deaths in any rolling 12-month period) as defined by the UCDP/PRIO methodology (organized armed groups; “battle-related deaths” per UCDP).

2. At least two major analytic sources explicitly characterize the Charlie Kirk shooting as a key / major / proximate trigger (a “spark” or “catalyst”) for the conflict’s outbreak. It need not be the sole or primary cause; multi-cause narratives are acceptable so long as the shooting is clearly presented as one of the main triggers.

Accepted sources for (2) (any two or more):

• International Crisis Group (CrisisWatch or special reports)

• UCDP/PRIO annual or special reports / syntheses

• ACLED country analyses or annual overviews

• U.S. Congressional Research Service (CRS) comprehensive reports

• RAND Corporation comprehensive reports

• Peer-reviewed academic syntheses (e.g., Journal of Peace Research)

How we judge “key/proximate trigger”

Language such as “trigger,” “spark,” “proximate cause,” or “catalyst” qualifies; phrasing like “background contributor,” “one of many long-term drivers,” or mere mention without causal framing does not. If sources conflict, we go by whether ≥2 accepted sources meet the standard; contrary sources don’t veto a YES if the threshold is met.

Exclusions / edge cases

• Isolated attacks, riots, protests, or politically motivated killings that do not aggregate into an organized armed conflict at the war-intensity threshold resolve NO.

• Secession or constitutional crises without the threshold above resolve NO.

• If thresholds are crossed after the close date, resolve NO..

Timing & evidence window

Trading closes on 2027-12-31. To allow post-event syntheses to be published, resolution may occur after close but only based on whether the criteria above were met on or before 2027-12-31. If sufficient qualifying sources have not identified the shooting as the primary trigger by 2028-06-30, resolves NO.

Primary data for (1): UCDP/PRIO organized-violence datasets/definitions (war-intensity threshold). Secondary corroboration: ACLED event-level data for timing and aggregation (does not lower thresholds).

Note:

This market concerns definitions and sources, not normative judgments. No celebration or endorsement of violence in comments; keep discussion civil, please.