Recent tweet has shown that LLMs like Claude 4 can provide biological information when prompted appropriately: https://x.com/ARGleave/status/1926138376509440433

This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2025:

Requirements:

• A biological attack occurs that causes at least 10 casualties OR significant public health response

• Credible evidence (government statements, court documents, investigative reporting) shows the perpetrator(s) used an LLM to obtain information relevant to the attack

• Information obtained must be relevant to planning, executing, or enhancing the biological attack

• Could include pathogen information, dispersal methods, target selection, etc.

• The LLM assistance doesn't need to be the primary cause, just a documented contributing factor

I will not bet in this market.