This is about whether Trump succeeds in breaking the two term presidential term limit, either by being a candidate in 2028, or not giving up power after the 2024 term is up
NOT breaking the limit looks like: two or more candidates, not including Trump, run in 2028 and then in 2029 the winner is in power and Trump leaves the White House. Or Trump leaves office early for any reason such as health, political loss or prosecution or flight. Even if he is overseas claiming to be the rightful president, if he's gone and not in control of the levers of power then NO
If Trump tries a bunch of YES like things but doesn't succeed and both the election happens as usual and Trump loses power at inauguration, then this can still NO. Its about whether he succeeds at going against the traditional two term limit.
Ways this can NO early:
Trump is clearly passed away
Otherwise it can only NO when the new president is in office at the appropriate time
YES to breaking the limit looks like: Trump is somehow a candidate again, or the election is delayed for reasons he clearly is involved in such as protests, calls for amendments etc. This can happen as soon as the election happens, or later if there are shenanigans before nomination, up to Feb 1 2029. If by then the new leader is in power and YES has not happened then this can NO
Other ways that would YES
This can YES even if Trump is merely an official candidate in 2028, running for president legally due to changes from now.
This can YES if an amendment is legally passed allowing longer time in power is passed and enters the Constitution. (Early NO). If merely suggested or partially passed then there's no effect on resolution yet. If suggested or begged for etc there is still no effect.
If Trump is involved in actually delaying the 2028 election by at least a day, then this can YES
Example: if Trump announces he is deploying military to prevent a threat to election day and that elections will be delayed by a week, that's a YES
Example: if Trump renames the office of President to something new which lets him avoid limitations and so avoids triggering other clauses here, but now occupies a new role where he still retains power of any kind more than prior presidents, this can still YES
Merely supporting and talking about an amendment isn't enough to YES.
ADDITION: later in the day, day of market creation: Also, speaking about removing the amendment which added term limits, isn't sufficient to YES, but the actual approval or addition to the constitution or removal or modification of an amendment, which would make him eligible to run again, would trigger YES
If there is some kind of big chaos, war, or unknown situation this is still about whether in reality, Trump has subverted or changed or overthrown or by other means somehow either: been allowed to run again, or has retained formal presidential power beyond the two term limit.
On NA: If genuinely unusual things happen such as delayed elections, but they're not related to an attempt to NO this, they don't always result in NA or YES. I'm going to attempt to judge this based on the meaningful core issue at contention, Trump succeeding in breaking the conventions of the electoral system
Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Terms are referred to based on the year of election (e.g., Obama from 2008-2016).
Here, I am referring to the next term after Trump's 2nd term (election was Nov 5, 2024, and he's planned to take office in Jan 2025).
@TimothyJohnson5c16 I’m not sure that it is.
He wouldn’t be “elected to the office of the President”, he would be elected to the office of the Vice-President (which is not directly against the 22nd Amendment). I think there’s a fair chance that the current SCOTUS would allow it.
“No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.”
@Santiago That loophole is closed by "But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States" in the 12th amendment, right?
Other related markets, some with different & well-written, useful criteria:
@Quroe I believe terms are referred to based on the year of election (e.g. obama from 2008-2016) even though he actually takes office the year after. In general here I am referring to the next term after trump's 2nd (election was Nov 5 2024, and he's planned to take office Jan 2025).