Will Emmett Shear attend Manifest 2025?
26
Ṁ1634Jun 8
92%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will resolve to YES if Emmett attends Manifest 2025 at Lighthaven in person, and NO otherwise. Resolution is based on my judgement as to whether I attended or not, given that I'm Emmett.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Reference classes:
Emmett has been to 50% of previous Manifests -- was at 2023, not 2024. (33% if you include minifest 2024)
I'd guess about 1-2 speakers out of the ~30 in Emmett's reference class, cancelled last minute in 2024
Emmett himself claimed 80% just now on Twitter
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