Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Will Donald Trump win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky ever win a Nobel Prize?

Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Will an AI get a Nobel Prize before 2050?

If Eliezer Yudkowsky wins the Nobel Peace Prize, what will it be for?

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be mentioned or quoted in the White House briefing room within 5 years?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?