Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win any of these awards or prizes before 2040?
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win any of these awards or prizes before 2040?
17
Ṁ3562040
35%
chance
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1M
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The Awards that could count for the purposes of this market are:
Turing Award
IEEE Richard W. Hamming Medal
C&C Prize
Millenium Technology Prize
Nebula Award
Nobel Prize
Abel Prize
Gauss Prize
Wolf Prize
IEEE John von Neumann Medal
John von Neumann Award
John von Neumann Prize
Seiun Award
IET Achievement Medal
Feynman Prize
BAFTA Award
Pritzker Prize
Academy Award
Tony Award
Booker Prize
Emmy Award
Peabody Award
Pulitzer Prize
Hugo Award
Grammy Award
Fermi Award
Crafoord Prize
Olympic Medal
Rolf Schock Prize
Kyoto Prize
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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