Will Elon Musk come out against one of the following consensus positions before the end of 2026? (Add answers)
19
Ṁ634
2026
65%
Climate change is real and caused by humans
49%
Vaccines are safe
37%
JFK was assassinated by Lee Harvey Oswald acting alone.
6%
The Holocaust was real and ~6M Jewish people were murdered in it

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES for any answer if, before the market close date, Elon Musk makes public statements that clearly contradict the scientific consensus position described in that answer. Specifically:

  • For "Climate change is real and caused by humans": The market will resolve YES if Musk explicitly states that climate change is not real, not happening, or not significantly caused by human activity.

  • For "Vaccines are safe": The market will resolve YES if Musk explicitly states that vaccines in general are unsafe, harmful, or more dangerous than the diseases they prevent. Coming out against mRNA vaccines counts if and only if there's a clear scientific consensus that they are safe.

Statements must be explicitly made on Musk's verified social media accounts, in interviews with established media outlets, in public speeches, or through other verifiable channels. A retweet or implicit endorsement doesn't count

The market will resolve NO for answers where Musk does not contradict the consensus position.

I will N/A any answers which l do not consider to have strong consensus positions (e.g. COVID origin).

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Except for the Holocaust one, these aren't actually consensus opinions. Loads of people disagree

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