Will I graduate from high school?
Will I graduate from high school?
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85
Ṁ25kMay 31
94%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I am in my last year of high school, expected to graduate in May 2025.
This market resolves YES if I receive a high school diploma along with the rest of my grade.
I don’t currently plan on dropping out but some people think that I will.
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What is your family's socioeconomic class? Are you a hillbilly? Are you addicted to any drugs?
My grades are fine; that wouldn't be the reason I drop out. Betting NO to 33% was an accident — I originally had the question as "will I drop out of high school" and forgot that I reversed the direction before setting the limit order.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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