As far as I can remember, I've never been hit by a bike on an actual road, but I've come close on multiple occasions. I nearly got hit by a car last week because of Manifold. Apparently, I have a habit of beginning to cross streets before looking both ways. One semester (block), I earned a 6 (exceeding expectations) in both disposition and achievement for being so good at walking (the "class" was specifically walking).
To count as being "hit by a bike," I have to come in contact with a moving bike, the biker on the bike, or any of the bikers possessions (that can't flow in wind -- so something like paper or leaves won't count). And being intentionally hit by a bike or pushed into the bike lane doesn't count.
This'll resolve as soon as I get hit by a bike, and if I don't graduate high school, this will end when I would have (mid 2027). I won't trade on this market or increase my bike-hitting chances in any way (oops forgot about this for a sec). If someone hits me on a bike specifically to win this market, I'll resolve it in the opposite direction of their position (do not do this).
May 2, 5:42pm: Will I be hit by a bike before I graduate high school? → Will I get hit by a bike before I graduate high school?
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3.00Apparently, I have a habit of beginning to cross streets before looking both ways.
Please try not to isekai.
i'd give this a ~20% chance for the next year, so ~60% chance if i sustain my bike probabilities. maybe there's some data that people's bike chances get higher once they get older
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00