This market resolves YES if Polymarket becomes officially allowed by regulatory bodies (such as the CFTC) for US citizens to use the platform without restrictions by December 31, 2025. Resolution will be based on official announcements from Polymarket or regulatory bodies.
References:
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):
A version of Polymarket that is accessible to US citizens but has a reduced set of markets would qualify for YES resolution
The impact of removing crypto trading capabilities on resolution is currently undetermined
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):
A version of Polymarket that is accessible to US citizens but has a reduced set of markets would qualify for YES resolution
The impact of removing crypto trading capabilities on resolution is currently undetermined
1,000
3.00@ng Polymarket bought a company with a license...
@EVPositve Came here from the manifold newsletter! Not sure the license allows for sports betting. The license is under the CFTC, and event markets are limited apparently to what is federally allowed under that: https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/40.11
§ 40.11 Review of event contracts based upon certain excluded commodities.
(a) Prohibition. A registered entity shall not list for trading or accept for clearing on or through the registered entity any of the following:
(1) An agreement, contract, transaction, or swap based upon an excluded commodity, as defined in Section 1a(19)(iv) of the Act, that involves, relates to, or references terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or an activity that is unlawful under any State or Federal law; or
Sports games seem to fall under that restriction, so then it becomes a state matter...
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https://x.com/ElleBeyoud/status/1947419302510137767
(from above) Quintez's vote was supposed to be today, July 21 but didn't happen.
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I am glad I posted my prognostic reasoning as it is clear that I never even considered they could just buy another company to get the license. (Big miss if this causes this to resolve YES).
I expect them won't transition to crypto under the license before 2025 finishes (but this shouldn't affect resolution of the market?), but perhaps they will keep it to the polymarket.us domain, separate from their cryptoplatform; this lets them keep the branding, so with a similar theme / interface as much as possible the polymarket one (don't know how much this is possible?). I did a quick whois search and didn't find any new polymarket domains, but did find they had updated the DNS records a few days after for their websites (including polymarket.com, polymarket.us), that is, 4 days after QCX obtained their license (QCX got approval July 9, updated domains on July 13, deal announcement on July 21.)
Other hits and misses: I originally guessed correctly confirmation (hit?) would be between June-August (which looks like it will still happen) when there was no nominee, but then later revised the prediction as it would happen earlier based on Trump nominating Quintez and the speed of the earlier nominations (miss -- the speed of nominations didn't keep their earlier, rapid pace).
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looks like an easy YES though under my interpretation of the spirit of the market... so I'm back in
@parhizj Your reading of the law is incorrect, the illegality refers to the underlying event (sports in this case), which is a legal activity. Kalshi is operating sports markets under this framework though the CFTC claimed that sports and elections were "gaming"
@nikki @FergusArgyll As far as the legal rule, I'm not a lawyer ( this article cites the same legal argument though: https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielwallach/2025/05/27/cftcs-failure-to-enforce-gaming-contract-ban-could-still-upend-kalshi-sports-betting-lawsuits/), and I did qualify with "seems." Although Kalshi has won some legal victories with respect to this, it seems to be a matter currently being fought state by state as the CFTC hasn't weighed in (or enforced its own legislation): https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/45377686/kalshi-prediction-markets-disrupt-sports-betting
Given that Trump has yet to even nominate a new CTFC head, which seems a pre-requisite, it will take some months before they are even confirmed and enter into office (Maybe June - August?). Following a transition period, it would also seem more likely than not to me that betting markets might not be given the highest priority, but even if they were fairly highly ranked, with less than I guess 6 months to go by that point, bureaucracy demands they take more than a few months for some internal processes to generate whatever rules come out of it that would allow such markets, so I would put the odds at less than 50% but I am not sure how much lower. I’ll try to remember to update at least one more time if the new head takes office unusually early (Before July), or as expected, later in the year ( July or later).
A bit dated news
https://x.com/BrianQuintenz/status/1889702678852211005
As the nomination looks official maybe we will see him confirmed rather quickly in a couple months given the speed of the other nominations. Looks likely before June now… probably around April ? Given this I’m selling my shares.
https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/the-future-of-futures-on-kalshi-and-prediction-markets
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Brian Quintez, a former CFTC commissioner, sits on Kalshi’s board of directors. Quintez (another innovator) was a commissioner at the time that the CFTC approved trading on event contracts. And a current CFTC commissioner, Caroline Pham, faces an official ethics complaint for colluding with Kalshi’s strategy team to shield the company from oversight, citing the “extraordinary, if not unprecedented, public disclosure of highly confidential, nonpublic, internal, factual and legal discussions by CFTC Commissioner […] concerning Kalshi’s pending application.”
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I don’t know if this is good or bad specifically for Polymarket short term. The news is obviously interpreted as favorable for Kalshi, but who knows is Polymarket has the legal aid to pull off even a limited version of their site with only certain (approved?) markets before the end of the year.
Long term it looks good for prediction markets.
@DailyFocus If Polymarket launches a version of the site for US citizens that doesn’t have all of the same markets will this resolve to yes?
@AaronSimansky I would think so, it seems that would qualify. However, if they removed the ability to trade with crypto, then I’m not sure. What do you think?
@DailyFocus I don't think the use of cryptocurrency is an essential (or even necessarily important) part of Polymarket. Given that and the burden imposed by the cryptocurrency "know your customer" regulations, I think as long as the site for U.S. citizens has similar functionality should count.