The REAL ID Act, enacted in 2005, establishes minimum security standards for state-issued driver's licenses and identification cards. The enforcement deadline has been postponed multiple times, with the current deadline set for May 7, 2025. This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, by May 7, 2025, the Department of Homeland Security announces a further postponement of the REAL ID enforcement deadline. Otherwise, it will resolve to 'No'. Source: TSA Press Release
To clarify, for the market to resolve to "Yes", there needs to be an explicit postponement as they've done in the past issued by either DHS/TSA of the REAL ID enforcement deadline made on or before May 7, 2025, that sets a new target enforcement deadline further in the future. Anything less than that, the market will resolve to "No".
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3.00does the "phased enforcement" announcement from last September count as "postponed enforcement"? It appears travelers may be delayed but not necessarily denied boarding. https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2024/09/12/tsa-announces-proposed-rule-provide-necessary-flexibility-federal
@MichaelEdgar The spirit of the market has seemed to me like it's about whether the historical delays that have been happening since the 2000's will continue, not whether the policy will have phases once it begins.
@Panfilo assuming the market creator agrees, this market is a good place to arb, I think: https://manifold.markets/CollectedOverSpread/will-real-idcompliant-identificatio?r=TWljaGFlbEVkZ2Fy