The REAL ID Act sets standards that state/territory-issued identification cards must meet to enter federal facilities and board airline flights (with security handled by a federal agency, the Transportation Security Administration).
The initial regulations required compliant identification cards starting in 2014 (or 2017 for people born before December 1964), but the date for full enforcement has been extended to 2020, then 2023, and now 2025 (as of December 2022). REAL ID-compliant identification is already required to enter federal facilities but not to board airline flights.
Will this last part of the REAL ID Act take effect in 2025 or will it be extended again?
This market resolves to YES if, at any point in 2025 (between 05:00 UTC on January 1, 2025 and 05:00 UTC on January 1, 2026 [05:00 UTC = 00:00 EST]), the Transportation Security Administration (or any other federal agency that may in the future be tasked with airport security in a similar role as TSA) rejects all state/territory-issued identification that is not REAL ID compliant for passengers 18 and older wishing to board domestic airline flights. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
Notes:
This market is asking only about state/territory-issued identification. Federally-issued identification is also considered REAL ID-compliant and will (presumably) be accepted as well.
Currently, TSA does not require identification for passengers under age 18. If this age limit is raised or REAL ID requirements apply only at a higher age, then this is not sufficient for a YES resolution.
As an exception, if the requirements take effect but they are blocked within a day (by some emergency order or court injunction, for example), then this is not sufficient for a YES resolution. I will use my own judgment based on credible news reports to determine whether this exception applies.
I may trade in this market as usual.
Close date updated to 2025-12-31 9:00 pm
Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Clarifications from Creator:
If the TSA implements measures such as fines for noncompliance with REAL ID without rejecting noncompliant IDs (e.g., issuing a $50 fine but still allowing boarding), it does not satisfy the criteria for a YES resolution.
Update 2025-04-13 (PST): • Interpretation of "require": The term is meant to capture the idea that identification is a necessary component of air travel, just as it is today. • Treatment of non-REAL ID-compliant IDs: For a YES outcome, non-REAL ID-compliant IDs must be treated the same as having no ID at all (i.e., subject to the same procedures without an option to board via an alternative process). • Phased enforcement nuance: The enforcement method (such as fines or alternative screenings) will be scrutinized; if noncompliant IDs are merely penalized but still accepted, that does not meet the YES resolution criteria. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000
3.00It is currently the case that one is not generally denied boarding when attempting to pass security without an ID. Instead the TSA will subject passengers to alternative identity verification procedures and additional screening. Most passengers are not denied boarding in this situation (though someone who really lives "off the grid" might be). It sounds like if this practice were continued until the end of the year, regardless of what happens with REAL ID, that this market would thus resolve NO. Have I misunderstood things?
Here is a recent TSA article which emphasizes this point, saying,
Passengers who [do not have a REAL ID] can expect to face delays, additional screening and the possibility of not being permitted into the security checkpoint
@IanTurner2541 "Require" (similarly "accept/reject") here is meant to capture the same notion of "necessity" as it applies to identification today. Passengers may not be denied boarding if they don't have ID, but it's generally understood that a form of identification is a "necessary" part of air travel.
The central case for a YES resolution is that TSA subjects passengers with a non-REAL ID-compliant ID to the same procedures as those without any form of ID. I suspect that the resolution will hinge on the exact nature of the "phased enforcement" that has been proposed.
@GG I would say that doesn't rise to the level of "rejecting" noncompliant IDs, so not sufficient for YES.
@MatthiasPortzel why the NO trade then? Are you not confident that it will stay in 2025?