First model series to cross 1500 on lmarena.ai?
24%
Gemini 2.5
13%
Gemini 3.0
10%
Other
9%
o3
8%
GPT 5
4%
Gemini 2.7 or similar
4%
Claude 4.1 or similar
4%
Claude 4.5
3%
Deepseek v4
3%
Deepseek r2
3%
ChatGPT 4o
3%
Claude 4
3%
Grok 3.5
3%
o4
3%
Deepseek r1
3%
Deepseek v3
3%
GPT-4.1 or similar

Exactly 1 options resolves yes (unless same exact release date, then split evenly)

(or similar) means anything that is in between 4.0 and 4.5 (for 4.1) or between 2.5 and 3.0 (for 2.7)

includes mini or pro versions

Will resolve if a model stays at or above 1500 for a week and has a 95% CI with a lower bound of at least 1495 at the end of that week (somewhat arbitrary criteria to ensure the score is based on a sufficient amount of votes)

Will N/A if they change the scoring significantly so that a current model passes 1500.

Source:

https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text

Default (with Style Control)

Current (6/5/25):

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules