Will there be some form of major social unrest in the USA by July 2025? Examples that would lead to a YES resolution include:
Widespread rioting leading to double-digit deaths
Armed insurrection
The January 6th insurrection
Organized terrorism
Things which would not count:
An assassination attempt perpetrated by a "lone wolf"
Generally speaking, isolated incidents of social unrest.
Due to the qualitative nature of the decision, I will not bet in this market.
Update 2025-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator specified their interpretation of organized terrorism for this market:
An act of terror committed by an organized terrorist cell composed of 3+ individuals.
An act of terror backed by a state.
1,000
3.00@GazDownright I would say an act of terror committed by an organized terrorist cell composed of 3+ individuals, or an act of terror backed by a state. But I'm open to discussing the criterion.
They would not, in my opinion, constitute major social unrest, but pretty close. For the purpose of this question I would qualify the BLM protests/riots as moderate social unrest. Well on its way to major unrest, but not quite there yet.