Will there be major social unrest in the USA by July 2025?
โž•
Plus
50
แน€18k
Jul 1
8%
chance

Will there be some form of major social unrest in the USA by July 2025? Examples that would lead to a YES resolution include:

  • Widespread rioting leading to double-digit deaths

  • Armed insurrection

  • The January 6th insurrection

  • Organized terrorism

Things which would not count:

  • An assassination attempt perpetrated by a "lone wolf"

  • Generally speaking, isolated incidents of social unrest.

Due to the qualitative nature of the decision, I will not bet in this market.

  • Update 2025-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator specified their interpretation of organized terrorism for this market:

    • An act of terror committed by an organized terrorist cell composed of 3+ individuals.

    • An act of terror backed by a state.

Get
แน€1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

@BrunoJ What would trigger "organized terrorism" as opposed to, say, lonewolf act of terror

@GazDownright I would say an act of terror committed by an organized terrorist cell composed of 3+ individuals, or an act of terror backed by a state. But I'm open to discussing the criterion.

opened a แน€10,000 NO at 13% order

What do Yes bettors think is going to happen this month?

reposted

If Trump loses, I believe there will likely be unrest at least as significant as Jan 6.

bought แน€50 NO

So to be clear the BLM uprisings wouldnโ€™t count?

They would not, in my opinion, constitute major social unrest, but pretty close. For the purpose of this question I would qualify the BLM protests/riots as moderate social unrest. Well on its way to major unrest, but not quite there yet.

ยฉ Manifold Markets, Inc.โ€ขTerms + Mana-only Termsโ€ขPrivacyโ€ขRules