Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, the conflict between Israel and Iran (and possibly involving other actors such as the USA) is generally recognized as a war lasting six months or longer.

Resolves "NO" if, on December 31, 2025, the parties have come to an agreement, one of the parties has surrendered, or an ongoing standoff or truce has been reached in which neither party has taken military action for at least 30 days.