Who will be Prime Minister of Canada after Justin Trudeau?
Basic
42
Ṁ4957
2026
68%
Other
13%
Chrystia Freeland
12%
Mark Carney
6%
Pierre Poilievre

  • Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:

    • The market will resolve to the person who becomes Prime Minister after Justin Trudeau, regardless of whether it is through resignation or a new election.

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Why is Other so much higher in this market than the following? https://manifold.markets/cash/who-will-be-the-next-leader-of-the-ff66e5c8c460

bought Ṁ5 YES

This one has now gotten a lot more interesting!

@BoltonBailey Justin Trudeau is set to resign before an election and be replaced by another Liberal as PM. That PM would count as a YES for this question, correct?

@cash Yes, this market says nothing about the PM having to come about as a result of a new election. If Trudeau resigns and a new person becomes Prime Minister, this market will resolve to that person.

Market says nothing about interim PMs not counting, so if Trudeau resigns a Liberal would take office before Polievre.

ShkeonkboughtṀ10 YES

@Shkeonk Wasting mana here too wow

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