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Mark Carney is now Wikipedia-official. Thanks everyone, here is a new market.

I guess if Trudeau ends up getting reelected, this thing gets a big extension in terms of closing date? Or would you resolve it N/A?

@AndrewKeen trudeau is resigning this month...?

@SaviorofPlant Seeing some noise on X that he might have changed his mind about resigning/seeking reelection but it's probably nothing.

@AndrewKeen whatever the case, the answer is that I would extend the date if this happened.

Does the next liberal leader have to assume the Prime Ministership though? I would think it would be much better for them to not assume it, reject any request to form government, and ask the GG to trigger an immediate election?

Why is Other so much higher in this market than the following? https://manifold.markets/cash/who-will-be-the-next-leader-of-the-ff66e5c8c460

@IC IDK, it's probably just mispriced. Perhaps people think Trudeau won't end up stepping down? But then seems like Polievre should be much more likely here.

@IC there is also now a discrepancy with these two markets between who is the frontrunner, Carney or Freeland.

This one has now gotten a lot more interesting!

@BoltonBailey Justin Trudeau is set to resign before an election and be replaced by another Liberal as PM. That PM would count as a YES for this question, correct?

@cash Yes, this market says nothing about the PM having to come about as a result of a new election. If Trudeau resigns and a new person becomes Prime Minister, this market will resolve to that person.

Market says nothing about interim PMs not counting, so if Trudeau resigns a Liberal would take office before Polievre.

@Shkeonk Wasting mana here too wow

@PeterNjeim lol