This market resolves YES if any one thing from the listed things happens in 2026

Leader Exits

• Donald Trump leaves office before end of 2026 (death, resignation, impeachment, removal, etc.)

• Vladimir Putin leaves office

• Xi Jinping leaves office

Geopolitical & Unexpected Events

• China invades or blockades Taiwan

• Enemy troops on American soil (invasion or combat operations)

• USA men's team wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup

• Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 USD

• OpenAI officially claims AGI achieved internally

• New major pandemic causes widespread flight cancellations (at least 100 international flights canceled)

• Nuclear bomb detonation above ground

• Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce publicly break up or divorce

• Quantum computing breakthrough ("Q-Day") cracks major encryption, causing widespread crypto/market panic

• S&P 500 drops >40% from its 2025 peak

• Sam Altman is out as OpenAI CEO for more than three weeks

• Washington, D.C. officially becomes the 51st state

AI directly causes one of the following:

• Death(s) of human(s) (unrelated to suicide encouragement)

• Discovers and exploits a zero-day vulnerability without human prompting, causing ≥$100M USD worldwide damages

• Solves an unsolved mathematics problem listed on Wikipedia (problem must have its own wiki page)

Celebrity Deaths

• MrBeast

• Taylor Swift

• Timothée Chalamet

• Zendaya

• Billie Eilish

• Lionel Messi

• Cristiano Ronaldo

• Travis Kelce

• Kanye West

• Pope Leo XIV

Major US Tragedies

• Mass shooting or terrorist attack causes >100 deaths in a single US state in one day

• Mass casualty accident (e.g., plane, train, infrastructure) causes >1,000 deaths in a single US state

• Natural disaster causes >20,000 deaths in a single US state

Politics & Supreme Court

• SCOTUS upholds Trump's executive order limiting or ending birthright citizenship

• One party wins 75 or more seats in the U.S. Senate after 2026 midterms

• A Canadian province formally votes to secede or join the United States

~~~~I do not respect AI sloppa updates below this line

• Update 2025-12-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding "AI directly causes death(s) of human(s)" criterion:

  • AI telling someone to commit murder does NOT count as AI directly causing death

  • Autonomous car deaths are excluded (too common, not a black swan event)

  • Intentional AI drone killings do NOT count

  • AI drone mistakes/accidents do NOT count

  • DOES count: AI system autonomously acting against operator control to directly kill (example given: consumer drone gets AI upgrade, refuses operator controls, and autonomously attacks a human)