Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES if credible, tangible evidence emerges before January 1, 2030, showing that senior officials in the Trump administration traded securities based on non-public information about tariff policies. Evidence must come from reliable sources such as court documents, regulatory findings, credible investigative journalism, or official government investigations.
The evidence must specifically demonstrate:
The individual was a senior Trump administration official (or Trump)
They traded securities (bought or sold)
The trades were likely based on non-public information about tariff policies
The trading activity occurred during their time in the administration or was directly related to information obtained during that time
The market resolves NO if no such evidence emerges by January 1, 2030.
Background
Concerns about potential insider trading related to tariff announcements have been raised, particularly after instances where Trump's social media posts about market opportunities preceded policy announcements that affected stock prices. For example, Trump posted "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT" on Truth Social shortly before announcing a halt on retaliatory tariffs, which was followed by market surges.
Some lawmakers, including Senator Adam Schiff, have questioned who within the administration had advance knowledge of tariff changes and whether anyone profited from this information. However, as of now, no concrete evidence has emerged proving that senior Trump officials engaged in insider trading related to tariff policies.
1,000
3.00