Each answer will resolve independently based on the verdict in Mangione's criminal trial:
YES if Mangione is found guilty of that specific count, or pleas guilty to that count
NO if Mangione is found not guilty of that specific count, or if the count is dismissed/dropped before or during trial, or if Mangione dies before a verdict is delivered for that count.
You can read the indictment for these charges here:
https://manhattanda.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Mangione-Indictment-FINAL-as-filed.pdf
If Mangione is charged with additional New York crimes related to the assassination before the full resolution of this market, I will add them.
The resolution date will be extended until all answers are resolved.
Update 2024-19-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If multiple degrees of the same crime are charged for a single act, you cannot be convicted of lesser included offenses (LIO) in NY
2nd degree murder is considered a lesser included offense of 1st degree murder
2nd degree murder is likely (but not definitively) a lesser included offense of 2nd degree murder as a crime of terrorism
2nd degree murder as a crime of terrorism is likely (but not definitively) a lesser included offense of 1st degree murder
Update 2024-23-12 (PST): - A hung jury resulting in a mistrial will not resolve this market - it will remain open pending potential retrial (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000
3.00@Riley12 I agree, jury nullification is a very real possibility to consider.
(Subsequently, this information should be considered if the murder charge percentages should or should not add to 100%.)
@Riley12 Yes. If there is a hung jury and the judge declares a mistrial, then that won't resolve this market.
@FoxKHTML In all seriousness, is everything alright, mate? From the other comments left here, it seems like you have a personal stake in this market/event beyond just internet-play-points. I have a feeling you're not personally mad at me, and I hope we're cool.
@FoxKHTML Ah, cool beans. I hope my bets or anybody else's bets of NO on these market options have not offended you.
I have come to the point where I make trades based on what I think will happen, not necessarily what I want to happen.
Until we meet again!
@TheAllMemeingEye In NY you cannot be convicted of "lesser included offenses" for the same act.
There is precedent that 2nd degree murder is a LIO for 1st degree murder.
My reading of 2nd degree murder as a crime of terrorism is that it should be a LIO of 1st degree murder, and 2nd degree murder should be a LIO of 2nd degree as a crime of terrorism. I'm not a lawyer, though, and I don't think there is any precedent about that charge.