Same resolution criteria as: https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-luigi-mangione-be-convicted-of
Except, one year later.
This market will resolve YES if:
- Luigi Mangione is convicted of murder (any degree) in connection with Brian Thompson's death by a court of law before January 1st, 2027. 
- Luigi Mangione pleads guilty to murder charges in connection with Brian Thompson's death before January 1st, 2027. 
The market will resolve NO if:
- Mangione is acquitted of murder charges 
- No conviction is reached by January 1st, 2027 
- Charges are dropped or reduced to lesser charges (e.g., manslaughter) 
- Mangione is never formally charged with murder 
- Mangione dies before a conviction is reached 
Trials on high profile cases can easily take over three years
https://open.substack.com/pub/shakeddown/p/lawyers-are-bad-actually
@TimothyJohnson5c16 yeah, it can take longer but high variance. I'm giving it 20% to take over two years but I wouldn't give it 75%.