
Outcome of the 2026 US Midterm election
Basic
18
Ṁ15592027
13%
Democrats control Congress
69%
Democrats control House, Republicans control Senate
3%
Republicans control House, Democrats control Senate
15%
Republicans control Congress
Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on the Wikipedia page for the United States Congress: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Congress.
Independents will be counted based on which party they caucus with.
A tie in the Senate will be resolved by the Vice President's party.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Sort by:
@EvanDaniel I will resolve according to this Wikipedia page, once the results are finalized:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Congress
The two independent senators caucus with the Democrats and that's how they're counted, so I assume the same would apply for the House.
Yes, a senate tie resolves according to the Vice President's party.
Related questions
Related questions
Will 2026 turnout exceed 2022? (US midterms, percentage)
82% chance
Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
26% chance
2026 Midterms Election Weirdness
Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
75% chance
Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?
Balance of power after the 2028 elections
Outcome of the 2028 Presidential Election
What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms?
Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?
Will the Democrats gain 38+ seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 US midterm elections?
56% chance