Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections? | Manifold

Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?

Plus

44

Ṁ18k

2026

98%

Wyoming

96%

South Dakota

95%

West Virginia

95%

Montana

95%

Arkansas

94%

Oklahoma

94%

Mississippi

94%

Kansas

94%

Louisiana

93%

Tennessee

92%

South Carolina

92%

Idaho

91%

Kentucky

91%

Alabama

85%

Nebraska

81%

Texas

78%

Iowa

76%

Ohio (Special)

76%

Florida (Special)

66%

Alaska

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections

Update 2025-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - An independent candidate who caucuses with the Republican party will not count as a Republican for the purposes of this market's resolution.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Democratic Party

#2026 US Election

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Does this include independents who intend to caucus with the Republicans, should there be any?

@EvanDaniel I’ll say no, as Manifold’s 2024 markets treated all independents as “Other” party.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Can you add Ohio and Florida?

@ZaneMiller Added

bought Ṁ25 YES

Susan Collins unbeatable

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