Will the radical right AfD get more votes than the centre-right CDU/CSU in Germany's next federal election?
Basic
12
Ṁ1356
Oct 31
6%
chance

Over the last month the far-right AfD has risen sharply in the polls.
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/

Is this a permanent change in Germany's political landscape?

  • Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:

    • Comparison based on combined CDU/CSU vote totals rather than CDU alone.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

@AlexbGoode only CDU or CDU/CSU? Most polls show CDU/CSU combined.

@dp9000 i'll use the combined results

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules