Funny wording, thinking that AfD is the radical one

Easiest bet. AfD will wipe the floor with SPD.

@KripkeSaul

@Gideon37 Why are you so bullish on SPD?

@Simon74fe remember the last election?

Fair enough. But I think by now most voters already have strong opinions about Scholz. Seems less likely the polls would move that much

@Simon74fe it’s polls, it’s only two per cent difference atm, maybe 1% considering pollsters are not the best at predicting afd results/have biases etc. How is this 68%? I’d say it’s more towards 50/50.

I think incumbents generally have an advantage in Germany, and Scholz proved in the last election that he can make a comeback. Maybe he needs to put a little more blame on his coalition partners for his unpopular policies and shine with his popular ones e.g. Taurus missile question, etc

Pollster error could go in either direction, and incumbency should already be priced into polls. Of course Scholz could potentially gain some ground by focusing on his strengths, but so could the AfD, for example by holding an X Space with Elon Musk. The post-Christmas polls have AfD leading by 3.5 points, so 68% seems about fair?

@Simon74fe hence, we hold different positions

Related: https://manifold.markets/TimonSchneider/will-the-farright-german-party-alte?r=VGltb25TY2huZWlkZXI

I added 2,000 mana as limit orders at various percentages to give this market a bit more liquidity.

I added 2,000 mana as limit orders at various percentages to give this market a bit more liquidity.

The way I perceive it, "radical" is more often not as a synonym of "extremist" but as a current within liberalism that's pretty much in the center of the political spectrum nowadays.

@BrunoParga Especially in german contexts I would use "radical" for any position far from the center and "extremist" for unconstitutional positions opposing the liberal democratic basic order (see also https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radikalismus#Definition_durch_den_bundesdeutschen_Verfassungsschutz)

@BrunoParga The AfD is a radical far-right party. The German word is 'Rechtsextremismus' - right wing extremism. They have nothing to do with liberalism. They reject the liberal and democratic basic order. Trying to frame them to be in the center of anything is naïve at best.

@GrassomannGrassomann okay, I guess it's just a different historical development of the terms then. Vielen Dank!

@AlexbGoode I never equated the horrible, horrible AfD with a perfectly reasonable political position like centrist liberalism. What I said was that, from my point of view, the word "radical" does not apply to the AfD, because they are not in any way centrist liberals and that is what the word means to me. Grassomann has clarified that the word is used differently in Germany and that's okay, words don't have intrinsic definitions, they only mean what people use them to mean.

Screw the AfD (and their left-wing counterparts, the Left).

@BrunoParga I misunderstood your comment. Thanks for clarifying!

Tbc, will this question resolve NO if the AfD does not participate in the next federal election? (e.g. because it is dissolved and a successor party participates instead)

@Joern If the AfD does not participate they will get 0 votes. Since there are no negative votes this means this question will resolve no.

@AlexbGoode actually something can be zero if there is something to count. If AFD is not allowed to participiate in the elections by regulation, the number of votes is N/A, as should your resolution be in that case

@SKy The question in the title is "Will the radical right AfD get more votes than the social democrats in Germany's next federal election?".

If the AfD does not participate, you can argue there is no number of votes (N/A, as you say) -- but the market should still resolve no: it is not true that N/A > (number of SPD votes), even though N/A < (number of SPD votes) is not true either.

Nice question!

@MaxG agreed!