Market resolves YES if I am the victim of a blackmail or ransom threat that heavily relies on AI which would be significantly more difficult (or impossible) for a human to execute without AI assistance. The market resolves NO if this does not happen by December 31, 2031, 11:59:59 UTC.
The attacking message cannot be marked as spam/scam by whatever medium I am receiving the message in. There also needs to be a reasonable chance (>0.1% of readers/listeners) that someone would fall for the scam or pay the attacker.
Examples that would result in a YES resolution:
I receive a call claiming a loved one is held hostage, using an AI-generated voice of that loved one, demanding ransom.
An AI-generated image of me engaging in illegal activity is used to blackmail me.
An AI is utilized to gather personal information about me online, which an attacker then uses for blackmail.
Examples that would not result in a YES resolution:
A loved one receives a call claiming I am held hostage. (I am not the victim in this case.)
I receive a generic scam email utilizing an AI that is used to search for email addresses online.
A language model generates a generic scam email addressed to me, even if it includes some easily accessible information about me.
An AI builds a close relationship with me and convinces me to send money to someone (this scenario is not a blackmail/ransom threat).
I will resolve ambiguous cases by poll (potentially proportional to the poll), but I will wait until the end of 2031 in case a clearer threat occurs.
Helpful information about me (as of June 2024): I live in Qatar. I will be a senior in high school next school year. My family and I do not post our faces or voices on social media, but you can occasionally find photos of me through Google searches due to other organizations (e.g. school). I consider myself somewhat paranoid about privacy. By 2031, I will likely have been out of college for two years.
I will answer questions about myself at my discretion and will make an effort to clarify questions regarding the market resolution.
I will place an initial bet of NO in the market and will not buy or sell any shares in this market afterward.
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3.00Voting yes because it's possible that spurious ransom threats with imitated voices will become a common spam message, & everyone will safely ignore them.
This would count as YES as long as there is a reasonable (>0.1%) chance someone would fall for the scam.
I would also need to be able to receive and view/hear the message without it being marked as spam/scam. I will update the market resolution to clarify this.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00