US Inauguration Day Prop Bets (Jan. 20th 2025)
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Jan 22
92%
Trump attends
91%
≥3 previous presidents in attendance
84%
The speech will contain the word "great".
67%
A former or current president will be seen wearing sunglasses.
61%
An original musical piece will be composed for and performed at the ceremony
60%
The speech will mention the losing (runner-up) presidential candidate by name
59%
Abraham Lincoln's Bible will be used for the swearing in (used by Obama and Trump)
50%
Over 2,000 words in inaugural address
50%
The temperature at the moment the President is sworn in will be LOWER than average
50%
The temperature at the moment the President is sworn in will be HIGHER than average
44%
A pop song will be performed
41%
It will rain on inaugration day
38%
It rains, to some degree
34%
Speech makes a joke about how many people are or aren't in attendance
34%
Booing loud enough for speech to halt
33%
The speech will make mention of a peaceful transition of power.
30%
Trump and Biden will shake hands on camera at any point during the day.
20%
It will snow on inaugration day
17%
The oath will be fumbled to the extent that is re-administered later to be sure (like Obama in 2008)

The other market won't let you add questions... but I will!


On Camera

There will be a lot of news footage, interviews, and different camera angles throughout the day. If you've got proof of a question resolving, link to the video and the timestamp.

Speech

If you make a question about the president's inaugural speech, using quotes means that exact word must be said. Not using quotes gives more leeway.

Weather

We'll use the official data from the national weather service.

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#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election
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@HarryHayfield Maybe I'm dense, but average of what? Temperature throughout that day? Average across years at that time on that day?

@FergusonSitwell Somehow Trump does the longest convention speeches (3 RNCs in a row) but gave a relatively short inaugural speech. https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/presidential-documents-archive-guidebook/inaugural-addresses

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/presidential-documents-archive-guidebook/party-platforms-and-nominating-conventions-2

For Trump phrases before Inauguration Day: https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/what-2-word-phrase-will-donald-trum?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

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