Will Boris Nadezhdin be the head of Russia before EOY 2030?
Will Boris Nadezhdin be the head of Russia before EOY 2030?
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A presidential election is planned in Russia for 15-17 March 2024.
Boris Nadezhdin intends to run for president. He openly opposes the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Elections in Russia aren't free and fair. Opposition to the invasion is repressed.
I will resolve YES if Nadezhdin holds the position that, at the time, is the position of the head of state (like the president currently). If the position of the head of state shifts to someone else (like the prime minister), I'll resolve accordingly.
If Russia ceases to exist and Nadezhdin has not ever been head of state by then, I will resolve NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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