By EOY 2040, will I have been parent to a human child?
By EOY 2040, will I have been parent to a human child?
Plus
2
Ṁ342040
52%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I don't currently plan any children, so this is mostly a market on whether I change my mind.
Adopting a child counts. Being a biological father (or mother or whatever the hell I'll be in 2040) but not being part of the child's life doesn't count.
Feel free to ask questions to estimate my chances, and I will feel free to accept or ignore them.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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bought Ṁ20 YES6mo
Remind me to sell YES later. I’m not sure right now a child is a good idea so I at least cushion my empathic expectations with extra YES in case it happens too fast.
@wadimiusz Are you in a relationship?
Are you in a country in an active state of war?
Do you have you own apartment/house?
How many jobs did you change in the recent 5 years?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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