If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Will the total user count for AI chatbots decline by more than a factor of 7 between now and the end of 2026?

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Will AI generated content be ~50% or more of content creation on major social media platforms in 2025?

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Will a romantic relationship with an AI chatbot comprise 25% of all relationships within the USA before the year 2030?

Will bots be the dominant population (>50%) on any leading social media platform by 2030?

Will a OpenAI, Anthropic, Google or Meta release an AI chatbot that has ads in the responses in 2025?

Will an AI have >100 million Twitter followers this decade?