If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?
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See https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mostly-skeptical-thoughts-on-the. Resolves N/A if Scott Alexander doesn't do it.
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“percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots” Does this specifically exclude chatbots that people intentionally follow?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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