Will Rich Sutton and Eliezer Yudkowsky debate at Manifest 2025
Will Rich Sutton and Eliezer Yudkowsky debate at Manifest 2025
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Ṁ3678resolved Jun 9
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I would like for my two favorite thinkers, Rich Sutton and Eliezer Yudkowsky to debate on the subject of AGI at manifest. I will try to make it happen but God knows both are stubborn and won’t want to debate.
There is a lot of common ground, like both are libertarians, both take AI seriously, I feel like a live debate might be actually productive but who knows.
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"Debate" means they speak casually for 3 minutes and someone takes a picture, or does it mean a scheduled event?
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Haha great idea, I've added Rich to my 2025 Manifest invite list. We'll see!
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00