To be clear, by this I mean:
Highly-interactive = tons of people can interact with them, e.g. maybe there is a public chatbot website similar to ChatGPT, or maybe they are a streamer, or live in a discord server, or lots of other possibilities. The key point is that the AI should have a public persona that many normal people interact with.
Reflective = it is self-aware and develops relations with other people based on their interactions. Sydney counted as reflective for this purpose due to this, but only barely. Ideally the reflectiveness should be more secure and comprehensive than Sydney's, and I may ignore a big AI that is only barely reflective if there is a smaller but still big AI that more properly matches the ideal of a reflective AI.
E-celebrity = not only should it be possible for people to interact with them, people should also actively interact with and/or talk about them, kind of as if they are a person. So for instance an abandoned AI would not count, nor would a personalityless oracle.
By "biggest", I mean I will try to get some comparable numbers like Monthly Active Users or similar.
If there is a council or team of AIs/AI personas, then I will try to count them as a single entity, at least if they are run by the same entity. If there are different e-celebrity AIs that develop friendships or alliances, they will be counted as separate. If there are a massive number of different AI personas (e.g. Replika), then they will not count as an e-celebrity at all.
I will not be betting in this market.
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3.00@tailcalled The ability of AI chatbots to give a canonical response to any discourse you might throw at it is part of why I suspect they might become a thing in politics:
https://twitter.com/SebastienBubeck/status/1634009568341622784
@tailcalled Reminder for the people voting sex:
If there are a massive number of different AI personas (e.g. Replika), then they will not count as an e-celebrity at all.
While I don't doubt there will be massive use of AI girlfriends (and maybe even AI boyfriends), they would not count. Sex could still count if e.g. it was an AI pornstar or something, but not if it was a personal one.
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00