Background

I've occasionally seen some nazi-adjacent people express concerns about the racial situation in South Africa. This includes sharing a documentary where some white farmers were being attacked, and more recently, sharing a video of the third-largest South African political party singing that people should kill the whites.

However, I know nothing about South African politics and very little about South African history, so for all I know, this might be taken out of context. This is what the mainstream media claims, with the white farmers getting attacked apparently employing black people who also get attacked, and the song about killing white people being some traditional song that came up in the context of apartheid.

Resolution criteria

If by the end of 2043, an unambiguous sign of serious attempted white genocide is observed, this market resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO. Potential examples of a YES resolution include:

• It is uncontroversially understood that a white genocide is happening.

• The rate at which white people are murdered increases by 30x or more, without a corresponding increase for other groups, and this increase in murders is associated with genocidal rhetoric, such as that song about killing whites.

• Some credible external power such as the UN or NATO intervenes with the specific purpose of stopping a genocide.

• Civil war breaks out after a major coalition of people engaging in genocidal rhetoric engage in a mass killing of white people.

Potential examples of a NO resolution includes:

• Nothing of interest happens.

• Some groups endorse white genocide and start killing people, but they don't make a big dent in the statistics.

• White culture in South Africa is suppressed or marginalized, but few are being killed for it.