Will the SMH semiconductor ETF close over $365 on June 20, 2025?
Will the SMH semiconductor ETF close over $365 on June 20, 2025?
Basic
11
Ṁ969
Jun 20
10%
chance

Resolves YES if the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) closes over $365 on June 20, 2025 according to Yahoo Finance or Google Finance (if Yahoo Finance is unavailable).

SMH is an ETF that invests in companies involved in the design, manufacture, and sale of semiconductors. Some of the top holdings in the SMH ETF are Nvidia, TSMC, AMD, ASML, and Intel.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:

Is it $365 after adjusting for the stock split?

"On May 5th, 2023 the Fund will effect a 2 for 1 forward stock split."

I think you should probably adjust, although in that case I'll sell all the NO shares I just picked up.

predictedNO 2y

@AmitAmin Yes, I'll use pre-split equivalent to judge

predictedNO 2y

More specific question about Nvidia, slightly longer timeline:

2y

There's no way, with the failure of the ai industry plus chip shortage.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules